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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200210

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
37
16
12
65
0
1
0
1
37
17
12
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
0
33
67
0
33
0
33
33
33
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
56
24
18
98
0
2
0
2
56
26
18
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.242
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.82 0.08
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.136
true Heidke skill score: -0.500 true Heidke skill score: -0.019
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.136
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: -0.024
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.242 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.286 -0.200
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.015 -0.014
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.941 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.754 1.000
samples: 3 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 4.55 %coverage: 100.00