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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199502-199504

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
9
3
14
2
9
3
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
46
23
24
93
2
9
3
14
48
32
27
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
64
21
100
14
64
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
43
21
22
87
2
8
3
13
45
30
25
100

hitrate: 0.214 hitrate: 0.243
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.91 0.52
Heidke skill score: -0.179 Heidke skill score: -0.136
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.071
Kuipers skill score: -0.179 Kuipers skill score: -0.136
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.077
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.214
threat score:
0.000 0.225 0.079
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.065 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.719 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.786
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.753 0.786
samples: 14 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 13.08 %coverage: 100.00