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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199503-199505

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
5
9
0
0
0
0
14
16
20
50
15
19
25
59

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
5
9
16
7
25
48
14
16
20
50
31
26
50
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
8
15
0
0
0
0
24
27
34
85
25
32
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
5
8
15
7
23
45
13
15
19
47
29
24
47
100

hitrate: 0.356 hitrate: 0.262
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 1.85 1.00
Heidke skill score: 0.034 Heidke skill score: -0.107
true Heidke skill score: -0.070 true Heidke skill score: -0.139
Kuipers skill score: 0.034 Kuipers skill score: -0.107
true Kuipers skill score: -0.064 true Kuipers skill score: -0.141
threat score:
0.043 0.000 0.364
threat score:
0.026 0.104 0.250
equitable threat score:
-0.062 0.000 -0.035
equitable threat score:
-0.044 -0.084 -0.059
probability of detection:
0.067 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.032 0.269 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 0.854 0.600
samples: 59 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 55.14 %coverage: 100.00