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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199503-199505

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
0
0
0
0
1
5
2
8
1
5
6
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
30
21
44
95
1
5
2
8
31
26
50
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
33
33
0
0
0
0
8
42
17
67
8
42
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
28
20
41
89
1
5
2
7
29
24
47
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.215
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 3.65 0.16
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.178
true Heidke skill score: -0.304 true Heidke skill score: -0.063
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.178
true Kuipers skill score: -0.341 true Kuipers skill score: -0.073
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.167
threat score:
0.000 0.210 0.036
equitable threat score:
-0.071 0.000 -0.250
equitable threat score:
-0.034 -0.027 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 0.808 0.040
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.779 0.750
samples: 12 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 11.21 %coverage: 100.00