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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199504-199506

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
9
17
29
3
9
17
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
16
35
78
3
9
17
29
30
25
52
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
31
59
100
10
31
59
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
15
33
73
3
8
16
27
28
23
49
100

hitrate: 0.586 hitrate: 0.308
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.12 0.56
Heidke skill score: 0.379 Heidke skill score: -0.037
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.009
Kuipers skill score: 0.379 Kuipers skill score: -0.037
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.010
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.586
threat score:
0.000 0.184 0.266
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.032 0.058
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.640 0.327
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.414
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.795 0.414
samples: 29 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 27.10 %coverage: 100.00