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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199505-199507

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
5
6
0
1
5
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
24
32
45
101
0
1
5
6
24
33
50
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
83
100
0
17
83
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
22
30
42
94
0
1
5
6
22
31
47
100

hitrate: 0.833 hitrate: 0.346
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.06 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.750 Heidke skill score: 0.019
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.042
Kuipers skill score: 0.750 Kuipers skill score: 0.019
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.045
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.833
threat score:
0.000 0.314 0.098
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.012 0.046
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.970 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.683 0.167
samples: 6 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 5.61 %coverage: 100.00