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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
3
5
0
0
0
0
14
6
2
22
16
6
5
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
3
5
36
28
17
81
14
6
2
22
52
34
22
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
0
11
19
0
0
0
0
52
22
7
81
59
22
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
3
5
33
26
16
75
13
6
2
20
48
31
20
100

hitrate: 0.148 hitrate: 0.296
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.31 0.00 4.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.38 1.00
Heidke skill score: -0.278 Heidke skill score: -0.056
true Heidke skill score: -0.152 true Heidke skill score: -0.005
Kuipers skill score: -0.278 Kuipers skill score: -0.056
true Kuipers skill score: -0.199 true Kuipers skill score: -0.006
threat score:
0.105 0.000 0.080
threat score:
0.036 0.322 0.048
equitable threat score:
-0.060 0.000 -0.099
equitable threat score:
-0.008 0.041 -0.066
probability of detection:
0.125 0.000 0.400
probability of detection:
0.038 0.824 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.000 0.909
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.654 0.909
samples: 27 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00