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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
4
8
0
0
0
0
10
5
1
16
14
5
5
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
4
8
38
29
17
84
10
5
1
16
52
34
22
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
0
17
33
0
0
0
0
42
21
4
67
58
21
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
4
7
35
27
16
78
9
5
1
15
48
31
20
100

hitrate: 0.208 hitrate: 0.315
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.57 0.00 3.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 2.47 0.73
Heidke skill score: -0.188 Heidke skill score: -0.028
true Heidke skill score: -0.188 true Heidke skill score: 0.006
Kuipers skill score: -0.188 Kuipers skill score: -0.028
true Kuipers skill score: -0.218 true Kuipers skill score: 0.007
threat score:
0.222 0.000 0.050
threat score:
0.071 0.326 0.027
equitable threat score:
-0.050 0.000 -0.140
equitable threat score:
0.003 0.041 -0.067
probability of detection:
0.286 0.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.077 0.853 0.045
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.938
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.655 0.938
samples: 24 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 22.22 %coverage: 100.00