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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
6
6
19
0
0
0
0
17
7
1
25
24
13
7
44

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
6
6
19
28
21
15
64
17
7
1
25
52
34
22
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
14
14
43
0
0
0
0
39
16
2
57
55
30
16
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
6
6
18
26
19
14
59
16
6
1
23
48
31
20
100

hitrate: 0.182 hitrate: 0.269
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.79 0.00 3.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.37 1.88 1.14
Heidke skill score: -0.227 Heidke skill score: -0.097
true Heidke skill score: -0.214 true Heidke skill score: -0.073
Kuipers skill score: -0.227 Kuipers skill score: -0.097
true Kuipers skill score: -0.244 true Kuipers skill score: -0.080
threat score:
0.194 0.000 0.032
threat score:
0.109 0.273 0.022
equitable threat score:
-0.131 0.000 -0.110
equitable threat score:
-0.039 0.015 -0.100
probability of detection:
0.292 0.000 0.143
probability of detection:
0.135 0.618 0.045
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.632 0.000 0.960
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.632 0.672 0.960
samples: 44 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 40.74 %coverage: 100.00