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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199508-199510

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
4
6
0
0
0
0
4
1
4
9
5
2
8
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
4
6
33
30
28
91
4
1
4
9
38
32
36
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
27
40
0
0
0
0
27
7
27
60
33
13
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
4
6
31
28
26
86
4
1
4
8
36
30
34
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.330
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.20 0.00 1.12
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 2.84 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.005
true Heidke skill score: -0.220 true Heidke skill score: 0.032
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.005
true Kuipers skill score: -0.205 true Kuipers skill score: 0.033
threat score:
0.100 0.000 0.308
threat score:
0.023 0.323 0.098
equitable threat score:
-0.125 0.000 -0.098
equitable threat score:
-0.028 0.039 0.025
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.026 0.938 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.000 0.556
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.670 0.556
samples: 15 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 14.15 %coverage: 100.00