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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199508-199510

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
0
0
0
0
7
2
5
14
7
2
8
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
31
30
28
89
7
2
5
14
38
32
36
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
18
18
0
0
0
0
41
12
29
82
41
12
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
29
28
26
84
7
2
5
13
36
30
34
100

hitrate: 0.294 hitrate: 0.330
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.43 0.00 1.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 2.78 0.39
Heidke skill score: -0.059 Heidke skill score: -0.005
true Heidke skill score: -0.308 true Heidke skill score: 0.031
Kuipers skill score: -0.059 Kuipers skill score: -0.005
true Kuipers skill score: -0.279 true Kuipers skill score: 0.033
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.294
threat score:
0.000 0.330 0.111
equitable threat score:
-0.141 0.000 -0.153
equitable threat score:
-0.027 0.049 0.006
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.625
probability of detection:
0.000 0.938 0.139
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.643
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.663 0.643
samples: 17 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 16.04 %coverage: 100.00