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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199508-199510

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
0
0
0
0
6
4
7
17
7
5
9
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
31
27
27
85
6
4
7
17
38
32
36
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
10
19
0
0
0
0
29
19
33
81
33
24
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
29
25
25
80
6
4
7
16
36
30
34
100

hitrate: 0.381 hitrate: 0.330
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.57 0.00 1.89
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 2.66 0.47
Heidke skill score: 0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.005
true Heidke skill score: -0.050 true Heidke skill score: 0.029
Kuipers skill score: 0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.005
true Kuipers skill score: -0.045 true Kuipers skill score: 0.030
threat score:
0.100 0.000 0.368
threat score:
0.024 0.300 0.152
equitable threat score:
-0.038 0.000 -0.024
equitable threat score:
-0.011 0.021 0.030
probability of detection:
0.143 0.000 0.778
probability of detection:
0.026 0.844 0.194
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.000 0.588
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.682 0.588
samples: 21 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 19.81 %coverage: 100.00