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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199508-199510

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
5
4
5
14
5
5
6
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
33
27
30
90
5
4
5
14
38
32
36
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
6
13
0
0
0
0
31
25
31
88
31
31
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
31
25
28
85
5
4
5
13
36
30
34
100

hitrate: 0.312 hitrate: 0.302
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.40 0.00 2.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.81 0.39
Heidke skill score: -0.031 Heidke skill score: -0.047
true Heidke skill score: -0.086 true Heidke skill score: -0.009
Kuipers skill score: -0.031 Kuipers skill score: -0.047
true Kuipers skill score: -0.082 true Kuipers skill score: -0.009
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.284 0.111
equitable threat score:
-0.098 0.000 -0.026
equitable threat score:
-0.018 -0.003 0.006
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.833
probability of detection:
0.000 0.844 0.139
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.643
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.700 0.643
samples: 16 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 15.09 %coverage: 100.00