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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199509-199511

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
5
7
0
0
0
0
7
7
6
20
8
8
11
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
5
7
25
22
31
78
7
7
6
20
33
30
42
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
19
26
0
0
0
0
26
26
22
74
30
30
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
5
7
24
21
30
74
7
7
6
19
31
29
40
100

hitrate: 0.259 hitrate: 0.276
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.88 0.00 1.82
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.21 2.60 0.48
Heidke skill score: -0.111 Heidke skill score: -0.086
true Heidke skill score: -0.192 true Heidke skill score: -0.048
Kuipers skill score: -0.111 Kuipers skill score: -0.086
true Kuipers skill score: -0.181 true Kuipers skill score: -0.050
threat score:
0.071 0.000 0.240
threat score:
0.026 0.256 0.107
equitable threat score:
-0.090 0.000 -0.127
equitable threat score:
-0.033 -0.004 -0.042
probability of detection:
0.125 0.000 0.545
probability of detection:
0.030 0.733 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.000 0.700
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.718 0.700
samples: 27 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 25.71 %coverage: 100.00