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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199509-199511

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
6
4
21
11
6
4
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
22
24
38
84
11
6
4
21
33
30
42
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
52
29
19
100
52
29
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
23
36
80
10
6
4
20
31
29
40
100

hitrate: 0.190 hitrate: 0.267
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 5.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.80 0.50
Heidke skill score: -0.214 Heidke skill score: -0.100
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.061
Kuipers skill score: -0.214 Kuipers skill score: -0.100
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.064
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.190
threat score:
0.000 0.267 0.068
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.087
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.095
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.810
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.714 0.810
samples: 21 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00