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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199509-199511

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
4
2
16
10
4
2
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
26
40
89
10
4
2
16
33
30
42
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
63
25
13
100
63
25
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
22
25
38
85
10
4
2
15
31
29
40
100

hitrate: 0.125 hitrate: 0.267
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 8.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.97 0.38
Heidke skill score: -0.313 Heidke skill score: -0.100
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.052
Kuipers skill score: -0.313 Kuipers skill score: -0.100
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.055
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.125
threat score:
0.000 0.280 0.036
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.008 -0.089
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.867 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.875
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.708 0.875
samples: 16 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 15.24 %coverage: 100.00