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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199509-199511

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
10
8
11
29
11
8
12
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
22
22
30
74
10
8
11
29
33
30
42
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
3
6
0
0
0
0
32
26
35
94
35
26
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
21
21
29
70
10
8
10
28
31
29
40
100

hitrate: 0.387 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 0.00 2.42
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.47 0.69
Heidke skill score: 0.081 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.003 true Heidke skill score: 0.009
Kuipers skill score: 0.081 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.003 true Kuipers skill score: 0.009
threat score:
0.083 0.000 0.367
threat score:
0.029 0.268 0.183
equitable threat score:
0.026 0.000 -0.012
equitable threat score:
0.011 0.014 -0.012
probability of detection:
0.091 0.000 0.917
probability of detection:
0.030 0.733 0.262
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.621
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.703 0.621
samples: 31 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 29.52 %coverage: 100.00