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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199510-199512

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
3
5
0
0
0
0
15
7
5
27
15
9
8
32

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
3
5
19
22
31
72
15
7
5
27
34
31
39
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
9
16
0
0
0
0
47
22
16
84
47
28
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
3
5
18
21
30
69
14
7
5
26
33
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.156 hitrate: 0.260
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.00 3.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 2.32 0.69
Heidke skill score: -0.266 Heidke skill score: -0.111
true Heidke skill score: -0.179 true Heidke skill score: -0.088
Kuipers skill score: -0.266 Kuipers skill score: -0.111
true Kuipers skill score: -0.200 true Kuipers skill score: -0.090
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.167
threat score:
0.000 0.272 0.082
equitable threat score:
-0.133 0.000 -0.075
equitable threat score:
-0.044 0.009 -0.101
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.625
probability of detection:
0.000 0.710 0.128
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.815
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.694 0.815
samples: 32 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 30.77 %coverage: 100.00