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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199510-199512

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
5
7
0
0
0
0
12
8
6
26
12
10
11
33

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
5
7
22
21
28
71
12
8
6
26
34
31
39
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
15
21
0
0
0
0
36
24
18
79
36
30
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
5
7
21
20
27
68
12
8
6
25
33
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.182 hitrate: 0.260
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.58 0.00 2.36
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.21 2.29 0.67
Heidke skill score: -0.227 Heidke skill score: -0.111
true Heidke skill score: -0.239 true Heidke skill score: -0.088
Kuipers skill score: -0.227 Kuipers skill score: -0.111
true Kuipers skill score: -0.238 true Kuipers skill score: -0.090
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.194
threat score:
0.000 0.259 0.102
equitable threat score:
-0.155 0.000 -0.119
equitable threat score:
-0.059 -0.003 -0.076
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.545
probability of detection:
0.000 0.677 0.154
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.769
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.704 0.769
samples: 33 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 31.73 %coverage: 100.00