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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199510-199512

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
18
11
8
37
18
11
8
37

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
20
31
67
18
11
8
37
34
31
39
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
49
30
22
100
49
30
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
19
30
64
17
11
8
36
33
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.216 hitrate: 0.269
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.16 0.95
Heidke skill score: -0.176 Heidke skill score: -0.096
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.083
Kuipers skill score: -0.176 Kuipers skill score: -0.096
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.085
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.216
threat score:
0.000 0.256 0.118
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.109
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.645 0.205
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.784
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.701 0.784
samples: 37 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 35.58 %coverage: 100.00