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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199510-199512

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
6
9
0
0
0
0
9
9
9
27
9
12
15
36

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
6
9
25
19
24
68
9
9
9
27
34
31
39
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
17
25
0
0
0
0
25
25
25
75
25
33
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
6
9
24
18
23
65
9
9
9
26
33
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.269
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 1.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.26 2.19 0.69
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.096
true Heidke skill score: -0.200 true Heidke skill score: -0.076
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.096
true Kuipers skill score: -0.191 true Kuipers skill score: -0.077
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.273
threat score:
0.000 0.237 0.158
equitable threat score:
-0.143 0.000 -0.103
equitable threat score:
-0.073 -0.021 -0.024
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.000 0.613 0.231
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.721 0.667
samples: 36 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 34.62 %coverage: 100.00