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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199510-199512

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
5
8
0
0
0
0
10
9
10
29
10
12
15
37

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
5
8
24
19
24
67
10
9
10
29
34
31
39
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
14
22
0
0
0
0
27
24
27
78
27
32
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
5
8
23
18
23
64
10
9
10
28
33
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.270 hitrate: 0.279
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.80 0.00 1.93
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.24 2.16 0.74
Heidke skill score: -0.095 Heidke skill score: -0.082
true Heidke skill score: -0.170 true Heidke skill score: -0.063
Kuipers skill score: -0.095 Kuipers skill score: -0.082
true Kuipers skill score: -0.161 true Kuipers skill score: -0.065
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.294
threat score:
0.000 0.241 0.172
equitable threat score:
-0.137 0.000 -0.079
equitable threat score:
-0.066 -0.016 -0.019
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 0.613 0.256
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.655
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.716 0.655
samples: 37 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 35.58 %coverage: 100.00