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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199510-199512

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
4
7
0
0
0
0
11
6
6
23
11
9
10
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
4
7
23
22
29
74
11
6
6
23
34
31
39
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
10
13
23
0
0
0
0
37
20
20
77
37
30
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
4
7
22
21
28
71
11
6
6
22
33
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.269
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.64 0.00 2.30
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.21 2.39 0.59
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.096
true Heidke skill score: -0.214 true Heidke skill score: -0.070
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.096
true Kuipers skill score: -0.212 true Kuipers skill score: -0.072
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.222
threat score:
0.000 0.265 0.107
equitable threat score:
-0.166 0.000 -0.086
equitable threat score:
-0.059 -0.001 -0.055
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.000 0.710 0.154
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.739
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.703 0.739
samples: 30 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 28.85 %coverage: 100.00