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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
6
14
0
0
0
0
12
3
1
16
16
7
7
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
6
14
17
30
27
74
12
3
1
16
33
37
34
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
13
20
47
0
0
0
0
40
10
3
53
53
23
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
6
13
16
29
26
71
12
3
1
15
32
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.337
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.87 0.00 2.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.42 2.00 0.47
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.005
true Heidke skill score: -0.330 true Heidke skill score: -0.015
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.005
true Kuipers skill score: -0.341 true Kuipers skill score: -0.014
threat score:
0.154 0.000 0.045
threat score:
0.093 0.370 0.020
equitable threat score:
-0.187 0.000 -0.150
equitable threat score:
-0.011 0.067 -0.097
probability of detection:
0.250 0.000 0.143
probability of detection:
0.121 0.811 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.000 0.938
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.595 0.938
samples: 30 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 28.85 %coverage: 100.00