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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
5
9
0
0
0
0
12
5
2
19
15
6
7
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
5
9
18
31
27
76
12
5
2
19
33
37
34
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
4
18
32
0
0
0
0
43
18
7
68
54
21
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
5
9
17
30
26
73
12
5
2
18
32
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.179 hitrate: 0.346
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 0.00 2.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.27 2.05 0.56
Heidke skill score: -0.232 Heidke skill score: 0.019
true Heidke skill score: -0.248 true Heidke skill score: -0.002
Kuipers skill score: -0.232 Kuipers skill score: 0.019
true Kuipers skill score: -0.270 true Kuipers skill score: -0.002
threat score:
0.143 0.000 0.083
threat score:
0.077 0.378 0.039
equitable threat score:
-0.113 0.000 -0.143
equitable threat score:
0.004 0.072 -0.094
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 0.286
probability of detection:
0.091 0.838 0.059
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.895
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.592 0.895
samples: 28 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 26.92 %coverage: 100.00