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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
5
9
0
0
0
0
13
9
2
24
16
10
7
33

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
5
9
17
27
27
71
13
9
2
24
33
37
34
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
3
15
27
0
0
0
0
39
27
6
73
48
30
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
5
9
16
26
26
68
13
9
2
23
32
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.152 hitrate: 0.308
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.56 0.00 3.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.27 1.92 0.71
Heidke skill score: -0.273 Heidke skill score: -0.038
true Heidke skill score: -0.189 true Heidke skill score: -0.058
Kuipers skill score: -0.273 Kuipers skill score: -0.038
true Kuipers skill score: -0.215 true Kuipers skill score: -0.057
threat score:
0.136 0.000 0.069
threat score:
0.077 0.333 0.036
equitable threat score:
-0.077 0.000 -0.129
equitable threat score:
0.004 0.031 -0.121
probability of detection:
0.188 0.000 0.286
probability of detection:
0.091 0.730 0.059
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.917
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.620 0.917
samples: 33 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 31.73 %coverage: 100.00