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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
5
9
0
0
0
0
12
6
2
20
15
7
7
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
5
9
18
30
27
75
12
6
2
20
33
37
34
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
3
17
31
0
0
0
0
41
21
7
69
52
24
24
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
5
9
17
29
26
72
12
6
2
19
32
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.172 hitrate: 0.337
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 0.00 2.86
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.27 2.03 0.59
Heidke skill score: -0.241 Heidke skill score: 0.005
true Heidke skill score: -0.230 true Heidke skill score: -0.016
Kuipers skill score: -0.241 Kuipers skill score: 0.005
true Kuipers skill score: -0.251 true Kuipers skill score: -0.016
threat score:
0.143 0.000 0.080
threat score:
0.077 0.366 0.038
equitable threat score:
-0.101 0.000 -0.140
equitable threat score:
0.004 0.060 -0.100
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 0.286
probability of detection:
0.091 0.811 0.059
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.900
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.600 0.900
samples: 29 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 27.88 %coverage: 100.00