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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
7
11
0
0
0
0
12
4
2
18
15
5
9
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
7
11
18
32
25
75
12
4
2
18
33
37
34
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
3
24
38
0
0
0
0
41
14
7
62
52
17
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
7
11
17
31
24
72
12
4
2
17
32
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.172 hitrate: 0.356
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.73 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 2.03 0.53
Heidke skill score: -0.241 Heidke skill score: 0.034
true Heidke skill score: -0.354 true Heidke skill score: 0.014
Kuipers skill score: -0.241 Kuipers skill score: 0.034
true Kuipers skill score: -0.357 true Kuipers skill score: 0.014
threat score:
0.130 0.000 0.080
threat score:
0.073 0.400 0.040
equitable threat score:
-0.155 0.000 -0.185
equitable threat score:
-0.013 0.100 -0.088
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 0.222
probability of detection:
0.091 0.865 0.059
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.727 0.000 0.889
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.727 0.573 0.889
samples: 29 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 27.88 %coverage: 100.00