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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
7
11
0
0
0
0
13
3
0
16
16
4
7
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
7
11
17
33
27
77
13
3
0
16
33
37
34
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
4
26
41
0
0
0
0
48
11
0
59
59
15
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
7
11
16
32
26
74
13
3
0
15
32
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.111 hitrate: 0.346
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.69 0.00 2.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 2.08 0.47
Heidke skill score: -0.333 Heidke skill score: 0.019
true Heidke skill score: -0.469 true Heidke skill score: -0.002
Kuipers skill score: -0.333 Kuipers skill score: 0.019
true Kuipers skill score: -0.507 true Kuipers skill score: -0.002
threat score:
0.125 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.073 0.407 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.201 0.000 -0.220
equitable threat score:
-0.013 0.105 -0.117
probability of detection:
0.188 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.091 0.892 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.727 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.727 0.571 1.000
samples: 27 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 25.96 %coverage: 100.00