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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
6
10
1
1
0
2
7
2
0
9
11
4
6
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
6
10
23
34
28
85
7
2
0
9
33
37
34
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
5
29
48
5
5
0
10
33
10
0
43
52
19
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
6
10
22
33
27
82
7
2
0
9
32
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.190 hitrate: 0.356
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.91 0.50 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 2.30 0.26
Heidke skill score: -0.214 Heidke skill score: 0.034
true Heidke skill score: -0.327 true Heidke skill score: 0.010
Kuipers skill score: -0.214 Kuipers skill score: 0.034
true Kuipers skill score: -0.328 true Kuipers skill score: 0.009
threat score:
0.167 0.200 0.000
threat score:
0.075 0.386 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.175 0.134 -0.207
equitable threat score:
-0.005 0.065 -0.073
probability of detection:
0.273 0.250 0.000
probability of detection:
0.091 0.919 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.500 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.600 1.000
samples: 21 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 20.19 %coverage: 100.00