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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
8
12
0
0
0
0
10
2
0
12
13
3
8
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
8
12
20
34
26
80
10
2
0
12
33
37
34
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
4
33
50
0
0
0
0
42
8
0
50
54
13
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
8
12
19
33
25
77
10
2
0
12
32
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.125 hitrate: 0.356
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.92 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.36 2.16 0.35
Heidke skill score: -0.313 Heidke skill score: 0.034
true Heidke skill score: -0.556 true Heidke skill score: 0.012
Kuipers skill score: -0.313 Kuipers skill score: 0.034
true Kuipers skill score: -0.539 true Kuipers skill score: 0.012
threat score:
0.136 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.071 0.410 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.226 0.000 -0.250
equitable threat score:
-0.021 0.102 -0.093
probability of detection:
0.231 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.091 0.919 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.575 1.000
samples: 24 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 23.08 %coverage: 100.00