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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
6
10
0
0
0
0
14
3
0
17
17
4
6
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
6
10
16
33
28
77
14
3
0
17
33
37
34
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
4
22
37
0
0
0
0
52
11
0
63
63
15
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
6
10
15
32
27
74
13
3
0
16
32
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.111 hitrate: 0.346
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.59 0.00 2.83
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 2.08 0.50
Heidke skill score: -0.333 Heidke skill score: 0.019
true Heidke skill score: -0.418 true Heidke skill score: -0.002
Kuipers skill score: -0.333 Kuipers skill score: 0.019
true Kuipers skill score: -0.492 true Kuipers skill score: -0.002
threat score:
0.125 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.075 0.407 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.186 0.000 -0.197
equitable threat score:
-0.005 0.105 -0.122
probability of detection:
0.176 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.091 0.892 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.571 1.000
samples: 27 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 25.96 %coverage: 100.00