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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
3
10
0
0
0
0
11
1
0
12
16
3
3
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
3
10
27
24
32
83
11
1
0
12
43
27
35
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
9
14
45
0
0
0
0
50
5
0
55
73
14
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
3
10
26
23
30
79
10
1
0
11
41
26
33
100

hitrate: 0.227 hitrate: 0.276
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.62 0.00 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.23 3.07 0.34
Heidke skill score: -0.159 Heidke skill score: -0.086
true Heidke skill score: -0.299 true Heidke skill score: -0.006
Kuipers skill score: -0.159 Kuipers skill score: -0.086
true Kuipers skill score: -0.410 true Kuipers skill score: -0.006
threat score:
0.238 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.104 0.279 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.166 0.000 -0.122
equitable threat score:
0.021 0.041 -0.093
probability of detection:
0.312 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.116 0.889 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.711 1.000
samples: 22 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.95 %coverage: 100.00