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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
6
9
0
0
0
0
13
1
0
14
16
1
6
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
6
9
27
26
29
82
13
1
0
14
43
27
35
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
0
26
39
0
0
0
0
57
4
0
61
70
4
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
6
9
26
25
28
78
12
1
0
13
41
26
33
100

hitrate: 0.130 hitrate: 0.276
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.56 0.00 2.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.21 3.04 0.40
Heidke skill score: -0.304 Heidke skill score: -0.086
true Heidke skill score: -0.528 true Heidke skill score: -0.006
Kuipers skill score: -0.304 Kuipers skill score: -0.086
true Kuipers skill score: -0.674 true Kuipers skill score: -0.006
threat score:
0.136 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.061 0.313 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.207 0.000 -0.223
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.079 -0.105
probability of detection:
0.188 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.070 0.963 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.683 1.000
samples: 23 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 21.90 %coverage: 100.00