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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
4
7
0
0
0
0
13
2
0
15
16
2
4
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
4
7
27
25
31
83
13
2
0
15
43
27
35
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
0
18
32
0
0
0
0
59
9
0
68
73
9
18
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
4
7
26
24
30
79
12
2
0
14
41
26
33
100

hitrate: 0.136 hitrate: 0.267
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.44 0.00 3.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 3.07 0.43
Heidke skill score: -0.295 Heidke skill score: -0.100
true Heidke skill score: -0.340 true Heidke skill score: -0.016
Kuipers skill score: -0.295 Kuipers skill score: -0.100
true Kuipers skill score: -0.510 true Kuipers skill score: -0.018
threat score:
0.150 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.064 0.294 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.140 0.000 -0.168
equitable threat score:
0.003 0.057 -0.111
probability of detection:
0.188 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.070 0.926 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.699 1.000
samples: 22 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.95 %coverage: 100.00