CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
2
5
0
0
0
0
12
2
0
14
15
2
2
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
2
5
28
25
33
86
12
2
0
14
43
27
35
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
0
11
26
0
0
0
0
63
11
0
74
79
11
11
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
2
5
27
24
31
82
11
2
0
13
41
26
33
100

hitrate: 0.158 hitrate: 0.267
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.00 7.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 3.19 0.40
Heidke skill score: -0.263 Heidke skill score: -0.100
true Heidke skill score: -0.178 true Heidke skill score: -0.011
Kuipers skill score: -0.263 Kuipers skill score: -0.100
true Kuipers skill score: -0.359 true Kuipers skill score: -0.012
threat score:
0.176 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.067 0.284 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.073 0.000 -0.101
equitable threat score:
0.022 0.044 -0.105
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.070 0.926 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.709 1.000
samples: 19 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 18.10 %coverage: 100.00