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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
0
0
0
0
14
2
0
16
17
3
2
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
26
24
33
83
14
2
0
16
43
27
35
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
5
9
27
0
0
0
0
64
9
0
73
77
14
9
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
25
23
31
79
13
2
0
15
41
26
33
100

hitrate: 0.136 hitrate: 0.257
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.35 0.00 8.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 3.07 0.46
Heidke skill score: -0.295 Heidke skill score: -0.114
true Heidke skill score: -0.194 true Heidke skill score: -0.028
Kuipers skill score: -0.295 Kuipers skill score: -0.114
true Kuipers skill score: -0.374 true Kuipers skill score: -0.031
threat score:
0.150 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.065 0.279 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.107 0.000 -0.088
equitable threat score:
0.012 0.041 -0.117
probability of detection:
0.176 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.070 0.889 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.711 1.000
samples: 22 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.95 %coverage: 100.00