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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
3
6
0
0
0
0
14
3
0
17
17
3
3
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
3
6
26
24
32
82
14
3
0
17
43
27
35
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
0
13
26
0
0
0
0
61
13
0
74
74
13
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
3
6
25
23
30
78
13
3
0
16
41
26
33
100

hitrate: 0.130 hitrate: 0.257
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.35 0.00 5.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 3.04 0.49
Heidke skill score: -0.304 Heidke skill score: -0.114
true Heidke skill score: -0.223 true Heidke skill score: -0.029
Kuipers skill score: -0.304 Kuipers skill score: -0.114
true Kuipers skill score: -0.378 true Kuipers skill score: -0.032
threat score:
0.150 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.065 0.282 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.092 0.000 -0.125
equitable threat score:
0.012 0.046 -0.122
probability of detection:
0.176 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.070 0.889 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.707 1.000
samples: 23 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 21.90 %coverage: 100.00