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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
2
5
0
0
0
0
12
1
0
13
15
1
2
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
2
5
28
26
33
87
12
1
0
13
43
27
35
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
0
11
28
0
0
0
0
67
6
0
72
83
6
11
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
2
5
27
25
31
83
11
1
0
12
41
26
33
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.276
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.00 6.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 3.22 0.37
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.086
true Heidke skill score: -0.211 true Heidke skill score: 0.003
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.086
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.004
threat score:
0.176 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.067 0.295 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.091 0.000 -0.107
equitable threat score:
0.022 0.055 -0.099
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.070 0.963 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.701 1.000
samples: 18 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 17.14 %coverage: 100.00