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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
8
13
0
0
0
0
8
1
0
9
12
2
8
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
8
13
31
25
27
83
8
1
0
9
43
27
35
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
5
36
59
0
0
0
0
36
5
0
41
55
9
36
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
8
12
30
24
26
79
8
1
0
9
41
26
33
100

hitrate: 0.182 hitrate: 0.276
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.08 0.00 1.12
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 3.07 0.26
Heidke skill score: -0.227 Heidke skill score: -0.086
true Heidke skill score: -0.547 true Heidke skill score: -0.009
Kuipers skill score: -0.227 Kuipers skill score: -0.086
true Kuipers skill score: -0.515 true Kuipers skill score: -0.010
threat score:
0.190 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.077 0.294 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.222 0.000 -0.238
equitable threat score:
-0.028 0.057 -0.073
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.093 0.926 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.692 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.692 0.699 1.000
samples: 22 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.95 %coverage: 100.00