CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
8
13
0
0
0
0
11
1
0
12
15
2
8
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
8
13
28
25
27
80
11
1
0
12
43
27
35
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
4
32
52
0
0
0
0
44
4
0
48
60
8
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
8
12
27
24
26
76
10
1
0
11
41
26
33
100

hitrate: 0.160 hitrate: 0.276
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.87 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 2.96 0.34
Heidke skill score: -0.260 Heidke skill score: -0.086
true Heidke skill score: -0.572 true Heidke skill score: -0.012
Kuipers skill score: -0.260 Kuipers skill score: -0.086
true Kuipers skill score: -0.575 true Kuipers skill score: -0.013
threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.077 0.305 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.235 0.000 -0.238
equitable threat score:
-0.028 0.072 -0.093
probability of detection:
0.267 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.093 0.926 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.692 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.692 0.688 1.000
samples: 25 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 23.81 %coverage: 100.00