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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
8
12
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
11
12
3
8
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
8
12
31
24
27
82
9
2
0
11
43
27
35
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
4
35
52
0
0
0
0
39
9
0
48
52
13
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
8
11
30
23
26
78
9
2
0
10
41
26
33
100

hitrate: 0.130 hitrate: 0.257
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 1.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.28 3.04 0.31
Heidke skill score: -0.304 Heidke skill score: -0.114
true Heidke skill score: -0.549 true Heidke skill score: -0.035
Kuipers skill score: -0.304 Kuipers skill score: -0.114
true Kuipers skill score: -0.522 true Kuipers skill score: -0.039
threat score:
0.143 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.058 0.282 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.221 0.000 -0.252
equitable threat score:
-0.041 0.046 -0.087
probability of detection:
0.250 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.070 0.889 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.707 1.000
samples: 23 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 21.90 %coverage: 100.00