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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
7
9
17
0
0
0
0
10
7
9
26
11
14
18
43

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
7
9
17
22
24
17
63
10
7
9
26
33
38
35
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
16
21
40
0
0
0
0
23
16
21
60
26
33
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
7
8
16
21
23
16
59
9
7
8
25
31
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.233 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.55 0.00 1.44
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.52 1.66 0.74
Heidke skill score: -0.151 Heidke skill score: -0.019
true Heidke skill score: -0.188 true Heidke skill score: -0.035
Kuipers skill score: -0.151 Kuipers skill score: -0.019
true Kuipers skill score: -0.186 true Kuipers skill score: -0.035
threat score:
0.037 0.000 0.257
threat score:
0.020 0.312 0.173
equitable threat score:
-0.148 0.000 -0.078
equitable threat score:
-0.098 0.026 0.010
probability of detection:
0.091 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.030 0.632 0.257
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.941 0.000 0.654
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.941 0.619 0.654
samples: 43 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 40.57 %coverage: 100.00