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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
3
12
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
4
7
6
3
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
3
12
26
32
32
90
2
2
0
4
33
38
35
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
31
25
19
75
0
0
0
0
13
13
0
25
44
38
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
3
11
25
30
30
85
2
2
0
4
31
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.312 hitrate: 0.349
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.71 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.36 2.37 0.11
Heidke skill score: -0.031 Heidke skill score: 0.024
true Heidke skill score: -0.100 true Heidke skill score: -0.005
Kuipers skill score: -0.031 Kuipers skill score: 0.024
true Kuipers skill score: -0.099 true Kuipers skill score: -0.005
threat score:
0.357 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.125 0.333 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.029 0.000 -0.120
equitable threat score:
0.035 -0.004 -0.035
probability of detection:
0.714 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.152 0.842 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.583 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.583 0.644 1.000
samples: 16 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 15.09 %coverage: 100.00