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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
6
4
12
0
0
0
0
10
3
3
16
12
9
7
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
6
4
12
21
29
28
78
10
3
3
16
33
38
35
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
21
14
43
0
0
0
0
36
11
11
57
43
32
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
6
4
11
20
27
26
74
9
3
3
15
31
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.179 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 2.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.36 2.05 0.46
Heidke skill score: -0.232 Heidke skill score: -0.019
true Heidke skill score: -0.220 true Heidke skill score: -0.043
Kuipers skill score: -0.232 Kuipers skill score: -0.019
true Kuipers skill score: -0.227 true Kuipers skill score: -0.042
threat score:
0.091 0.000 0.150
threat score:
0.047 0.333 0.062
equitable threat score:
-0.186 0.000 -0.062
equitable threat score:
-0.044 0.018 -0.053
probability of detection:
0.167 0.000 0.429
probability of detection:
0.061 0.763 0.086
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.000 0.812
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.628 0.812
samples: 28 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 26.42 %coverage: 100.00