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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
6
6
18
0
0
0
0
14
6
3
23
20
12
9
41

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
6
6
18
13
26
26
65
14
6
3
23
33
38
35
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
15
15
44
0
0
0
0
34
15
7
56
49
29
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
6
6
17
12
25
25
61
13
6
3
22
31
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.220 hitrate: 0.330
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.90 0.00 2.56
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.55 1.71 0.66
Heidke skill score: -0.171 Heidke skill score: -0.005
true Heidke skill score: -0.178 true Heidke skill score: -0.022
Kuipers skill score: -0.171 Kuipers skill score: -0.005
true Kuipers skill score: -0.188 true Kuipers skill score: -0.021
threat score:
0.188 0.000 0.103
threat score:
0.133 0.338 0.055
equitable threat score:
-0.120 0.000 -0.086
equitable threat score:
0.010 0.050 -0.097
probability of detection:
0.300 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.182 0.684 0.086
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.870
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.600 0.870
samples: 41 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 38.68 %coverage: 100.00