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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
6
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
11
11
4
2
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
6
22
34
33
89
9
2
0
11
33
38
35
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
12
12
35
0
0
0
0
53
12
0
65
65
24
12
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
6
21
32
31
84
8
2
0
10
31
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.118 hitrate: 0.340
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.55 0.00 5.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.34 0.31
Heidke skill score: -0.324 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: -0.269 true Heidke skill score: -0.020
Kuipers skill score: -0.324 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: -0.365 true Kuipers skill score: -0.020
threat score:
0.133 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.054 0.366 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.169 0.000 -0.111
equitable threat score:
0.004 0.034 -0.086
probability of detection:
0.182 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.061 0.895 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.618 1.000
samples: 17 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 16.04 %coverage: 100.00