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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
3
3
10
0
0
0
0
10
4
1
15
14
7
4
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
3
3
10
19
31
31
81
10
4
1
15
33
38
35
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
12
12
40
0
0
0
0
40
16
4
60
56
28
16
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
3
3
9
18
29
29
76
9
4
1
14
31
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.340
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.71 0.00 3.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 2.13 0.43
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: -0.176 true Heidke skill score: -0.016
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: -0.206 true Kuipers skill score: -0.016
threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.056
threat score:
0.103 0.352 0.020
equitable threat score:
-0.111 0.000 -0.090
equitable threat score:
0.025 0.033 -0.090
probability of detection:
0.286 0.000 0.250
probability of detection:
0.121 0.816 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.000 0.933
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.617 0.933
samples: 25 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 23.58 %coverage: 100.00