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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
3
6
0
0
0
0
12
3
0
15
14
4
3
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
3
6
19
34
32
85
12
3
0
15
33
38
35
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
5
14
29
0
0
0
0
57
14
0
71
67
19
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
3
6
18
32
30
80
11
3
0
14
31
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.095 hitrate: 0.340
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.43 0.00 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.24 0.43
Heidke skill score: -0.357 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: -0.279 true Heidke skill score: -0.019
Kuipers skill score: -0.357 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: -0.395 true Kuipers skill score: -0.018
threat score:
0.111 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.054 0.382 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.143 0.000 -0.135
equitable threat score:
0.004 0.060 -0.110
probability of detection:
0.143 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.061 0.895 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.600 1.000
samples: 21 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 19.81 %coverage: 100.00