CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
6
0
0
0
0
8
2
1
11
10
4
3
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
6
23
34
32
89
8
2
1
11
33
38
35
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
12
12
35
0
0
0
0
47
12
6
65
59
24
18
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
6
22
32
30
84
8
2
1
10
31
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.176 hitrate: 0.349
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 0.00 3.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.34 0.31
Heidke skill score: -0.235 Heidke skill score: 0.024
true Heidke skill score: -0.214 true Heidke skill score: -0.006
Kuipers skill score: -0.235 Kuipers skill score: 0.024
true Kuipers skill score: -0.256 true Kuipers skill score: -0.006
threat score:
0.143 0.000 0.077
threat score:
0.054 0.366 0.022
equitable threat score:
-0.146 0.000 -0.085
equitable threat score:
0.004 0.034 -0.064
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.061 0.895 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.909
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.618 0.909
samples: 17 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 16.04 %coverage: 100.00